From time to time at Bet Smart, the Action Network NBA expert explains his favorite betting strategies. We need to act early today.
One of the best ways to gain an advantage in betting on NBA games is to start betting every morning as soon as the markets open. If you’re on the East Coast, that means you should be ready to bet around 8-9 p.m.
In a big market like the NBA, nothing slips through the cracks. Injury news, market inefficiencies, and cut-off lines are quickly corrected as the world’s sharpest pawns and betting syndicates seek to pull NBA sides and total value out of the value line.
Oddsmakers and seamstresses will have more information about the games as we get closer to the game, so early betting will allow you to take advantage of the mistakes in the first lines that oddsmakers make before they fix it.
As bookmakers change their lines depending on the actions they take, news of injuries, and other factors, the lines become clearer and harder to hit over the course of the day.
One of the biggest predictors of a long-term winner is to consistently cross the closing line. Early betting allows you to create a closing line value (CLV) and have better odds than closing when the line flies.
Using data from the Bet Labs database, we have compiled some numbers for closing lines on NBA score spreads over the past 10 years. In the data below, you can see that there is a ton of value in moving forward in the market, as your winning percentage increases with each half point that the seamstresses cross the final line.
Final line difference (winning percentage): 0 (49.2); 0.5 (51.19); 1 (53.02); 1.5 (55.03); 2 (56.69); 2.5 (58.59); 3 (60.4); 3.5 (62.28); 4 (63.99); 4.5 (65.86); 5 (67.36); 6 (70.59); 7 (73.54); 8 (76.34); 9 (78.86); 10 (81.34).
While the restrictions increase throughout the day, the ability to get a CLV decreases as you get closer to flying, so if you want to consistently get the best out of the number, you need to bet early.
Now, there are times when betting at the end of the day is profitable.
Imagine a game between the Los Angeles Lakers and the Sacramento Kings at Crypto.com Arena. The Lakers have LeBron James in their ranks, and because they are a popular team, we can see the public raising the Lakers to that level so you can benefit more from supporting the Rescue Kings.
Sports betting is the best game for many players. You are not just competing with a bookmaker, you are competing with thousands of other sports tailors who are shaping the market with their ideas.
A large part of the public, as well as understanding what experienced professionals think about the game, will allow you to read the market correctly and know the betting time to get the best value.