Thursday, May 19, 2022

MLB futures bets, odds, prediction: Yankees’ Josh Donaldson

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Betting anybody outside of Shohei Ohtani, Mike Trout or Vladimir Guerrero to win MVP or lead the league in home runs feels like a fool’s errand. But with those three guys garnering so much attention at the top of the board in those markets, and trendy picks like Byron Buxton and Wander Franco taking money as well, there are bound to be a few long shots that can give bettors a fun ride for a low cost.

One sneaky example – and again, this is a long shot – resides in the tri-state area.

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Josh Donaldson to hit most home runs (+20000)

When the Yankees traded for Josh Donaldson, the move was met with more confusion than excitement, but there’s a chance that the veteran third baseman turns out to be a productive player in pinstripes this season. Just how productive? Let’s take a look.

MLB futures, home run leader
Josh Donaldson, Yankees, hits an RBI double in a spring training game.

While Donaldson’s back-of-the-card stats weren’t great last season with the Twins, he was all over the Statcast leaderboard. Donaldson finished third in barrels per plate appearance, fourth in average exit velocity, 24th in expected slugging percentage and 11th in hard-hit rate. Add in the fact that he will be batting in a lineup with Joey Gallo, Aaron Judge, and Giancarlo Stanton, and you could see a path to some big numbers for Donaldson in his first season in the Bronx.


Betting on the 2022 MLB Season?


Donaldson’s age may be a concern, but he played 155 games in 2019 and 135 in 2021, so his injury history shouldn’t deter you from considering this bet at these long odds.

It’s extremely unlikely that Donaldson, who has only eclipsed the 40-homer plateau once in his career, paces the league in home runs (that’s why he’s 200/1), but his batted-ball data makes you wonder if he can pull a stunner in this market.

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