Wednesday, May 25, 2022

Mavericks vs. Suns props, picks, prediction: Go with Deandre Ayton

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The Phoenix Suns head back to Dallas for a potential series-clinching Game 6 against the Mavericks, and the prop bets for one key player – Deandre Ayton – are certainly interesting.

The big man will look to be a deciding factor in the paint in the hopes of pushing his team through to the Western Conference finals, and there are plenty of trends to suggest he is in store for a big night.

Ayton OVER 19.0 points

Ayton’s postseason average sits at 19.2 points (it’s almost like the people who set these lines know what they’re doing), but the Suns tend to go as he goes. In five of their last six victories, Ayton has tallied 19 or more points, including a 20-point performance in their last game.

Of the 16 teams that made the NBA playoffs, the Mavericks have allowed the sixth-most points in the paint this postseason, while also allowing the seventh-most second chance points. Throughout these playoffs, Ayton is averaging a robust 65 percent field goal percentage. With the Suns looking to put this series on ice, I think they’ll go to the hot hand in the key early and often.


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Ayton OVER 9.0 rebounds

Yes, the points have been there, but so have the rebounds for Ayton. With a line set at 9.0, it’s a very getable bet for the center who has cleared that number in three straight games and seven out of 11.

Deandre Ayton celebrates during Game 5 against the Dallas Mavericks.

Of the 16 teams to make the playoffs, the Mavericks rank dead last throughout the postseason in rebound percentage at 45.6 percent. This isn’t much of a surprise – it’s been an issue for Dallas all season. They allowed their opponents to secure 51.4 rebounds per game this season, which was the 10th-worst across the league.

Dallas has made it very apparent that it enjoys shooting much more at home than on the road. Away from home throughout these playoffs, Dallas has averaged 79.2 field goal attempts per game. In the Mavs’ own arena, that number sits at 83.8. More shots means more rebounding possibilities, and it all points to Ayton clearing nine rebounds for the fourth-straight game.

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