The NBA playoffs are a war of attrition. Teams wear down, they get tired, and in the worst-case scenarios, they often get hurt as we saw from Milwaukee Bucks swingman Khris Middleton who tore his MCL in the first round of the playoffs.
We’ve reached Game 6 of the Eastern Conference semifinals between the Bucks and Boston Celtics and the adjustments are all but done. The only thing left to do is out-execute one another, far from easy when you’re looking at a matchup between two of the NBA’s top defenses.
The Bucks have the NBA’s best playoff defense (1.02 points per possession), while the Celtics were the league’s best defense during the regular season (1.06). Predictably, this hasn’t been a high-scoring series and we should expect that to continue in Game 6.
Unders have been historically profitable in the NBA postseason, going 81 for the last 144 (56.3 percent). That gives bettors a big enough edge to break the 52.38% threshold needed to make a profit.
In a crucial Game 6, I’ll take the Under 211.5 in what should be a low-scoring war with the Bucks looking to close out the series and the Celtics looking to keep their season alive.
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The play: Celtics-Bucks Under 211.5.